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July corn closed up 1 1/4 cents today; December corn was up 5 cents. The crucial pollination period is in the back half of July. If there’s any weather problems in the extended forecast, a weather premium could quickly enter the market. The South has been unusually wet, while parts of the upper Midwest and High Plains remain in drought conditions. If the USDA decides to adjust new crop carryout lower again in July, that could be bullish for corn prices. On June 12, carryout was lowered by 50 million bushels (mb) to 1,750 mb. In addition, if exports are raised because of higher demand from China or ethanol demand is raised, that could help prices improve. China’s corn imports, year-to-date, are down 93.7%. 

If there are acreage declines of 1 million acres going forward that could theoretically show ~200 million bushels less in production. If the yield drops a bushel that would be a further reduction of 100 million bushels. If these scenarios transpire the carryover could drop to 1.4 billion bushels giving the market justification to build in some risk premium.

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Please consider the following:

These trades were structured today 6/18/25 using today’s settlement prices.

September’25 Corn was 429 when these trades were structured.

Buy 1 September’25 450 Call 10 7/8

Price: 10 7/8 Cost: $543.75/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions

September’25 Corn Options Expire 8/22/25 (65 Days) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

Buy 1 September’25 430 Call 17 5/8     

Sell 1 September’25 480 Call 5 1/8     

Price: 12 ½        Cost: $625.00/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions 

September’25 Corn Options Expire 8/22/25 (65 Days) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

Buy 1 December’25 475 Call 14 ¾ 

Price: 14 ¾    Cost: $737.50/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions 

December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (156 Days) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED 

Buy 1 December’25 450 Call 22 5/8     

Sell 1 September’25 500 Call 9 5/8     

Price: 13        Cost: $650.00/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions 

December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (156 Days) 

MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED

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Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading

Direct 312-765-7311 Toll Free 800-993-5449

hschmit@walshtrading.com    www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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